HOW TO READ
Methodology
A high score means daily movement or recent volatility is elevated relative to the pair’s history. It is not an upside probability, win rate, or trading signal.
Daily anomaly
We rank two components: the absolute daily log return, and realized volatility over 20 observations. Each is compared with up to 252 prior observations, excluding the current one.
Volatility is the sample standard deviation of 20 log returns, annualized by √252. It is not the daily high–low range. The daily percentage move shown elsewhere is a simple return.
Ties, zero values and short histories
A rank equals (number of lower values + half the number of tied values) / comparison count × 100. Ties allow for floating-point tolerance. Zero movement or zero volatility receives a component rank of zero. Each component requires at least 60 prior observations; otherwise the score is unavailable.
Each historical score uses only observations available up to that date within the current snapshot. The latest 320 observations are retained, so older chart segments may have shorter comparison windows or no score. Source revisions can change past values. This is a recalculated history, not an archive of scores published at the time.
Reading the bands
80–100 is labelled Elevated; 60–79, Above typical; below 60, Relatively quiet. These are presentation bands, not thresholds validated for statistical significance or trading performance.
Pair orientation
From ECB USD, GBP and JPY values per euro, we derive EUR/USD, GBP/USD (USD ÷ GBP) and USD/JPY (JPY ÷ USD). Daily changes compare consecutive observations, not necessarily consecutive calendar days.
Weekly positioning
FX combines Asset Manager and Leveraged Money in CFTC TFF reports. Gold uses Managed Money in Disaggregated reports. All are futures-only. Net positioning is (long − short) / open interest; JPY futures are inverted to the USD/JPY orientation.
Weekly positions are not added to the daily anomaly score. The samples, markets and dates differ. No causal or predictive relationship is claimed.
Calculation version
DAILY_ANOMALY_2. Demo pressure scores and fictional historical analogs are excluded. Predictive trading value has not been established.
CASCADE Lens
Six crosses among USD, EUR, GBP and JPY are calculated from the same three ECB histories: EUR/JPY = EUR/USD × USD/JPY, GBP/JPY = GBP/USD × USD/JPY, and EUR/GBP = EUR/USD ÷ GBP/USD. These are algebraically linked observations.
The Lens ranks absolute daily log returns against up to 252 strictly earlier returns, with at least 60 comparisons. Midrank ties and the zero rule follow the move component above. A rank of 90 or higher is called unusual. This is separate from the daily anomaly score, which also includes volatility.
When two or more unusual crosses all share one unique currency, the reading is concentrated around that currency. Otherwise multiple unusual crosses are distributed. Currency strength or weakness describes direction against the other three currencies, not a dollar index or a causal driver.
Five- and twenty-observation changes compare the selected date with those earlier reference dates. They are not calendar-day changes. Replay reconstructs the selected date from its history prefix; it does not use later rates. Revised source data may change past readings, so this is not an immutable record of what was known at the time.
Position Radar and calculators
Position Radar compares net positions / open interest with up to 156 earlier reports (minimum 52), excluding the current report and using midranks for ties. Low rank means more short relative to that group’s history; it does not necessarily mean an absolute net short. The USD/JPY view swaps the long and short sides of JPY futures. A price mismatch requires a rank at or beyond 10/90 and the net-position sign to agree. It compares the latest five-observation ECB change within ten calendar days of the position report, not a causal sequence or a backtest based on publication timestamps.
The position checker values the two currency legs at synchronized reference rates and reprices both under a chosen currency shock. The size calculator divides the chosen loss budget by stop distance and the reference conversion rate, flooring the result to whole base units. These are hypothetical calculations without execution costs or a guarantee of maximum loss.