CASCADE / MARKET OBSERVATORY
FX market overview
Across six currency pairs
ECB reference observations: 2026-10-02. 3 of six currency crosses had large moves relative to their own earlier history.
A move is flagged when its historical percentile rank reaches 90 or above.
Compare the six pairsLoading the latest saved observationsā¦
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Prices use daily reference observations; futures positions are weekly. Refresh checks saved data, not live quotes. Collection times appear below.
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Methodology
Daily exchange rates and weekly futures positions, each compared with its preceding observation.
Largest absolute changes among the pairs you selected. Descriptive comparisons, not trade recommendations.
Weekly Ā· Combined Asset Manager and Leveraged Fund net positions, as a share of open interest.
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Illustrative example
Both of these trades buy US dollars.
- Buy USD/JPY
- Sell EUR/USD
Buying USD/JPY sells yen to buy US dollars; selling EUR/USD sells euros to buy US dollars. The position checker groups your own positions by currency, showing where buys or sells repeat.
01 / MARKETS
Major currency pairs
ECB daily reference Ā· Scores are not probabilities
02 / UNDER THE SURFACE
View the latest 10 observations
| Date | Reference | Daily move | Anomaly score |
|---|
XAU / USD
Gold futures positioning
ECB does not publish a gold reference rate, so gold has no daily anomaly score here. The CFTC futures data below provides weekly context.
THE CASCADE LENS
Currency moves across six pairs
Compare four currencies in the same reference window to see whether large moves share a common currency.
Filter by currency Ā· unusual crosses / 3
| Cross | Daily move | Move rank / 100 | Context |
|---|
SHORT- AND MEDIUM-TERM CONTEXT
How to read the Lens
Unusual means an absolute log move at or above its own 90th percentile, compared with up to 252 strictly earlier moves (minimum 60). The current move is excluded from that sample. Ties use midranks; zero moves rank zero.
Four currencies, six algebraically linked crosses from the same ECB reference window. Connections describe shared moves, not six independent signals or evidence of causation.
Replay is reconstructed from the latest saved history; source revisions can alter past readings. Observation windows are not calendar-day periods.
03 / THE WIDER PICTURE
Futures positioning
Explore futures positioning from official CFTC reports.
Selected participant groups in futures markets. Not the entire FX market, a retail sentiment ratio, or a forecast.
Position RadarChecking weekly positioningā¦
THE CASCADE TOOLKIT
Put the market in perspective. Put your own risk in numbers.
BEHIND THE NUMBERS
Sources & observation dates
Observation dates and collection times are shown separately. Missing data stays missing.
About the data āChecking data sourcesā¦